Tomatoflation is the latest extreme price increase to hit grocery bills. The reasons why are alarming

Grocery prices keep rising, and one ingredient crucial to BLTs, salads, and fresh salsas has gotten particularly expensive. Tomato prices are up a staggering 40 compared to a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Fresh vegetables in general have gotten more expensive—up nearly 12 from a year ago—and prices for groceries like coffee (up 18.5) and beef (up about 15) have all increased. But tomatoes in particular stand out, with prices hitting 2.69 per pound in April, the highest level reported in the last 45 years. That price shock is thanks to simultaneous supply-chain disruptions: extreme weather, tariffs, and the conflict in Iran’s effect on fuel prices. Extreme weather caused crop damage “Tomatoes are very susceptible to environmental conditions,” says Rudolf Leuschner, an associate professor in Rutgers Business School’s department of supply chain management. A hot December followed by fog and rain throughout Mexico—where an estimated 70 of fresh tomatoes consumed in the U.S. originate from—slowed down this year’s tomato crop yield. (In Mexico, tomato inflation there exceeded 100 from January to April.) Unseasonably cold weather in Florida also played a part. Winter storms in January and February brought “widespread and unexpected damage” across the state, according to the Florida Department of Agriculture, causing more than 3 billion in damages to not only tomatoes but also strawberries, watermelons, citrus, and more. Experts have long warned that extreme weather is affecting crops around the world. Climate change makes events from droughts to floods more intense and frequent, and temperature changes can even shift where crops are best suited to grow. Tariffs and energy prices play a part Tariffs are also at play. The majority of tomatoes consumed in the U.S. come from Mexico, and President Donald Trump put a 17 tariff on tomato imports. Leuschner estimates that that means about 10 of tomatoes’ 40 year-over-year price increase is a result of tariffs. Then there are the higher energy and fuel prices due to the conflict in Iran, though experts say that’s likely responsible for a smaller share of that price surge. Energy commodities are up 29 from last year, the Consumer Price Index shows. Bernhard Dalheime, an assistant professor of macroeconomics and trade in Purdue University’s agriculture department, says there are three main ways that energy shocks affect food prices: transportation, fertilizer, and biofuels. Rising fertilizer costs likely aren’t reflected in price increases just yet, because farmers have already purchased most of their fertilizer for this planting season. Similarly, biofuels don’t really play a role for fresh produce. That leaves transportation costs as the main factor, though that impact is still small. “For every dollar that food costs, typically transportation is about three and a half cents,” Dalheime says. Is any relief coming? We’ll likely see more effects from the energy crisis in a few months, but experts say that’s not the main force behind rising prices at the moment. Weather is the most important factor at play, Leuschner says, because it leads to a direct supply shortage, followed by tariffs and then fuel. “But it’s all three that are adding to this,” he notes. Unfortunately, high prices are expected to continue. “I don’t see anything that will provide a lot of relief in these products over the medium term,” Dalheime says. Other impacts also remain unclear. One possibility is that shoppers could see a change in the quality of produce available at stores, with more blemished fruits and veggies potentially showing up on shelves. “If you have plenty of supply, you get to be more picky,” Leuschner says. “[We] could go to the grocery store and see product that doesn’t look as nice as it used to. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that.” How businesses may respond Whether businesses, including fast casual and other restaurants, will hike prices in response to tomatoflation is also an unknown. Different pricing strategies or contract lengths make that hard to predict. Some businesses, particularly in the fast casual space, may be sensitive to how consumers are already dealing with all sorts of rising costs, Leuschner says; they may absorb some of those increases for now. But looking long term, these price drivers—continuing climate impacts, volatile trade policies, and higher energy prices—may become an issue, according to Dalheime. “These are more structural upward drivers in these prices,” he says. “This is when businesses who think longer term may start to price some of these factors in.” Your burrito bowls are likely safe from a salsa surge (or shortage). Laurie Schalow, chief corporate affairs officer at Chipotle Mexican Grill, responded to a request for comment by saying that the chain currently has an “ample tomato supply” and does not anticipate “any meaningful impact” to its restaurants. Americans are being squeezed on both sides The tomatoflation that American consumers are experiencing is just the latest in a series of inflationary price surges. Those rising costs are also coming as real earnings for Americans drop. In the past two months, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data has shown that real incomes have been declining slightly. “That hasn’t happened since 2022,” Dalheime says. “That is a sign that consumers are starting to be more under stress.” Americans are being squeezed on both sides. And this all also hits lower income Americans harder; food costs in particular are likely to be a bigger share of lower income households’ budgets. These shocks also highlight all the issues that can affect our global food supply chains. Usually, one disruption isn’t enough to be noticeable to consumers, Leuschner says, but they start to notice when “you have two, three, four, five things happening at the same time.”