Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War
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Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War

May 1, 2026
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The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is now entering its third month. The average length of an interstate conflict in the past 200 years is three to four months, though many wars last far longer. This one shows little sign of abating.

Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War

But the war may be entering a new phase where prospects for a transformational change on the battlefield or at the negotiating table are receding. We need to adjust our frame of reference accordingly. Instead of looking for a determinative ending, a final resolution, or a negotiated agreement, this war may end up as just another round in an ongoing, half-century confrontation between the United States and Iran. Five politically inconvenient realities now define where we are. Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former U.S. State Department Middle East analyst and negotiator in Republican and Democratic administrations. He is the author of The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President. X: @aarondmiller2 Daniel C. Kurtzer is a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel. He teaches diplomacy and conflict resolution at Princeton University’s School of Public and International Affairs. X: @DanKurtzer

Foreign Policy
Foreign Policy

Coverage and analysis from United States of America. All insights are generated by our AI narrative analysis engine.

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