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What does The Economist’s election model predict for the midterms | The Economist
April 25, 2026
Posted 3 hours ago by
What does The Economist’s midterm tracker predict about the result of America’s congressional elections in November? The Economist’s data editor Dan Rosenheck joins Jason Palmer, co-host of The Intelligence podcast, to explain how the model has been built, including how polling errors, redistricting and candidate choices shape its forecast, and what could still change.
00:00 - Why are Democrats favoured in the midterms? 00:19 - What data powers the election model? 00:48 - How does the model handle polling errors and uncertainty 01:58 - Why the Democrats are favoured to flip the house 03:44 - Why the Senate is still a toss-up 05:29 - What could change the forecast before election day? Listen to the full episode: https://econ.st/42oDUg6 Virginia’s redistricting may be the nail in Republicans’ coffin:https://econ.st/41NnvSr Subscribe: https://www.economist.com/subscribe Download the App: https://www.economist.com/get-the-app Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theeconomist/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheEconomist/ X:https://x.com/TheEconomist #TheEconomist #Midterms #Elections
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