UAE exit from OPEC carries significant weight in global oil markets

Prior to the outbreak of the Iran war, the UAE was producing around 3.4 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to about 4 of global production, according to OPEC data for February. Output later declined to 1.9 million barrels per day in March, the first month of the war, which disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.According to Bloomberg, this production and export weight helps explain the sensitivity of the decision to exit OPEC+, as it could give Abu Dhabi broader latitude to set production levels outside the collective quota system, particularly amid its extensive investments to increase capacity. Abu Dhabi is simultaneously working to raise its production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, advancing the target from its previous 2030 timeline. This effort is supported by ADNOC’s 150 billion capital spending plan for 2023–2027, giving the OPEC+ exit an additional dimension linked to expanding flexibility in UAE production policy.The UAE has confirmed that the decision aligns with its long‑term strategic and economic vision and the development of its energy sector, including accelerating investment in domestic energy production. It also reinforces the country’s commitment to its role as a responsible and reliable producer looking ahead to the future of global energy markets.According to the statement, the decision follows decades of constructive cooperation. The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and maintained its membership after the establishment of the United Arab Emirates in 1971. Throughout this period, the country played an active role in supporting global oil market stability and strengthening dialogue among producing nations.