The war for oil that backfired: Trump’s 'energy dominance' illusion

This was not simply a security decision, but an economic and ideological gamble rooted in Trump’s long-held belief that U.S. control over international energy flows would translate into global geopolitical supremacy and arrest America’s relative decline. In his second term, that belief hardened into doctrine. But in Iran, it collided with reality. For years, Trump has openly flirted with the idea that the U.S. should “take” or otherwise control the oil resources of states too weak to impose retaliatory costs. That impulse, once dismissed as rhetorical excess, became operational policy under the banner of “energy dominance” — maximize U.S. and allied fossil-fuel output and then wield global supply and pricing as a strategic weapon against adversaries and even friendly states. By last year, the U.S. had indeed become the world’s largest oil and gas producer, flooding global markets with shale output and liquefied natural gas. This surge created a dangerous illusion in Washington — that America had insulated itself from the geopolitical risks of energy disruption. If the U.S. no longer depended on Middle Eastern oil, the thinking went, it could act militarily in the Persian Gulf without suffering serious economic consequences at home. That misperception proved decisive. Trump’s advisers argued that any Iranian retaliation — whether through attacks on Gulf infrastructure or disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — could be offset by U.S. and allied production. Last June’s limited U.S. strikes on Iran had triggered only temporary price spikes, reinforcing the belief that markets could be managed.Energy dominance, in this reading, was not just an economic strategy; it was a license for geopolitical coercion.It removed a constraint that had shaped decades of U.S. policy. Where previous presidents hesitated — fearing that war with Iran would send oil prices soaring and damage the global economy — Trump saw an opportunity. If supply could be controlled, then conflict could be contained.