Politics
Prediction Markets Surged With Bets Just Before Iran Ceasefire
April 8, 2026
The Daily Beast
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Kevin Lamarque / REUTERSHundreds of millions of dollars were moved through prediction markets as bettors put money on the U.S. and Iran coming to a ceasefire on Tuesday.In total, more than 170 million was bet on the event, marking it as one of the largest wagers on geopolitics since betting markets emerged, Bloomberg reported.Several bets were placed just before the ceasefire was announced by newly made, anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which has only further raised concerns about insider activity on prediction markets.
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