Pre-Playoff Betting Favorite Has Won 70 Percent Of NBA Championships Since 1980

The San Antonio Spurs (+500) and Boston Celtics (+550) trail the Thunder in the current title market. Between the Celtics in 2024 and the Thunder last season, the betting favorite has claimed the last two titles after a turbulent stretch from 2021 to 2023 when three straight favorites failed to reach the Finals. From 2019 through 2025, pre-playoff favorites won just three of seven titles. That stands in contrast to the dynasty-driven 1980s and 1990s, when heavy favorites routinely delivered. The most extreme favorites in recorded history according to Sports Odds History, the 1996 and 1997 Chicago Bulls at -600 and -500 respectively, both won championships. The 2019 Golden State Warriors, also at -220, represent the starkest recent collapse, falling in the Finals despite carrying the highest implied probability of any modern contender. The Warriors played the first four games without Kevin Durant and fell down 3-1 to the Toronto Raptors. Durant tore his Achilles in Game 5, which was won by the Warriors, before the Raptors won Game 6 to win the series. The Warriors' -220 line in 2019 has given way to a tighter +110 to +250 range in recent years, signaling that oddsmakers view championship races as considerably more open than during the league's dynasty eras. NBA Championship Favorite At Start Of Playoffs 1980: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Won Finals1981: Philadelphia 76ers (+150) - Lost Conf. Finals1982: Boston Celtics (+150) - Lost Conf. Finals1983: Philadelphia 76ers (+110) - Won Finals1984: Boston Celtics (+150) - Won Finals1985: Boston Celtics (+110) - Lost Finals1986: Boston Celtics (-150) - Won Finals1987: Los Angeles Lakers (+120) - Won Finals1988: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Won Finals1989: Detroit Pistons (+150) - Won Finals1990: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Lost Conf. Semis1991: Chicago Bulls (+150) - Won Finals1992: Chicago Bulls (-150) - Won Finals1993: Chicago Bulls (+200) - Won Finals1994: Seattle SuperSonics (+200) - Lost 1st Round1995: Orlando Magic (+250) - Lost Finals1996: Chicago Bulls (-250) - Won Finals1997: Chicago Bulls (-180) - Won Finals1998: Chicago Bulls (-110) - Won Finals1999: San Antonio Spurs (+300) - Won Finals2000: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Won Finals2001: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Won Finals2002: Los Angeles Lakers (-140) - Won Finals2003: Los Angeles Lakers (+200) - Lost Conf. Semis2004: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Lost Finals2005: San Antonio Spurs (+250) - Won Finals2006: Detroit Pistons (+200) - Lost Conf. Finals2007: Dallas Mavericks (+150) - Lost 1st Round2008: Boston Celtics (+350) - Won Finals2009: Los Angeles Lakers (+150) - Won Finals2010: Los Angeles Lakers (+250) - Won Finals2011: Miami Heat (+175) - Lost Finals2012: Miami Heat (+200) - Won Finals2013: Miami Heat (-150) - Won Finals2014: Miami Heat (+200) - Lost Finals2015: Golden State Warriors (+220) - Won Finals2016: Golden State Warriors (-150) - Lost Finals2017: Golden State Warriors (-160) - Won Finals2018: Golden State Warriors (-150) - Won Finals2019: Golden State Warriors (-220) - Lost Finals2020: Los Angeles Lakers (+250) - Won Finals2021: Brooklyn Nets (+200) - Lost Conf. Semis2022: Phoenix Suns (+210) - Lost Conf. Semis2023: Milwaukee Bucks (+240) - Lost 1st Round2024: Boston Celtics (+160) - Won Finals2025: Oklahoma City Thunder (+185) - Won Finals NBA Champions With Odds At Start Of Playoffs 1980: Los Angeles Lakers (+150)1981: Boston Celtics (-260)1982: Los Angeles Lakers (-160)1983: Philadelphia 76ers (+140)1984: Boston Celtics (-120)1985: Los Angeles Lakers (+120)1986: Boston Celtics (-167)1987: Los Angeles Lakers (-250)1988: Los Angeles Lakers (-167)1989: Detroit Pistons (+160)1990: Detroit Pistons (+200)1991: Chicago Bulls (+250)1992: Chicago Bulls (-200)1993: Chicago Bulls (+300)1994: Houston Rockets (+600)1995: Houston Rockets (+1800)1996: Chicago Bulls (-400)1997: Chicago Bulls (-200)1998: Chicago Bulls (+140)1999: San Antonio Spurs (+350)2000: Los Angeles Lakers (-125)2001: Los Angeles Lakers (+300)2002: Los Angeles Lakers (+140)2003: San Antonio Spurs (+250)2004: Detroit Pistons (+700)2005: San Antonio Spurs (+250)2006: Miami Heat (+500)2007: San Antonio Spurs (+400)2008: Boston Celtics (+180)2009: Los Angeles Lakers (+160)2010: Los Angeles Lakers (+225)2011: Dallas Mavericks (+1800)2012: Miami Heat (+200)2013: Miami Heat (-125)2014: San Antonio Spurs (+330)2015: Golden State Warriors (+175)2016: Cleveland Cavaliers (+475)2017: Golden State Warriors (-173)2018: Golden State Warriors (+137)2019: Toronto Raptors (+975)2020: Los Angeles Lakers (+280)2021: Milwaukee Bucks (+850)2022: Golden State Warriors (+1000)2023: Denver Nuggets (+1000)2024: Boston Celtics (+160)2025: Oklahoma City Thunder (+185)