Far be it from me to suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin owns Donald Trump.So let’s call this just a happy coincidence.According to new reporting from the Telegraph in London, analysts estimate Putin is raking in roughly 760 million a day as the war in Iran drives global oil prices higher. That figure — drawn from analysis by the Kyiv School of Economics and maritime tracker Vortexa — points to something larger than another oil price spike.It reveals a mechanism.War in Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices jump. Then comes the part that should cause heads to spin.The United States issues a “temporary” sanctions waiver on certain Russian oil shipments — initially described as a narrow allowance for cargo already at sea. But in global commodity markets, perception is reality.The waiver doesn’t just move a few shipments. It changes the risk calculation across the entire market — effectively rehabilitating Russian crude from a sanctioned commodity back to something buyers can treat as ordinary market oil.And that risk is everything.As the reporting reveals, Russia was still selling oil for much of the past two years—but at a steep discount. Buyers were willing but cautious. Legal exposure, financial friction, and reputational cost all forced prices down. India, for example, was buying Russian crude at a 9-per-barrel haircut. China was taking a 15 discount.Those discounts are now happily gone—or sharply reduced. According to KSE analyst Borys Dodonov, Russian oil is sometimes commanding a premium at Indian ports. Vortexa reports India has increased Russian oil imports by 72 percent since the war began.One needn’t possess the chops of an international economist to understand the basic outcome here: Same barrels, same destinations, much higher price. All to the benefit of Trump’s benefactor.The sanctions weren’t lifted. They were just made easier to ignore.Kremlin oil and gas revenues are projected to nearly double this month alone. If the conflict drags into fall, annual Russian energy revenues could reach 386 billion — nearly triple pre-war projections.As Simon Johnson, the Nobel laureate and former IMF chief economist, said, “It just increases what Russia can receive per barrel, by a lot, putting cash in the pocket of our enemies.”There’s no diplomatic way to dress that up.The waivers eased political pressure on gas prices at home—a short-term reprieve for an administration managing an unpopular war. The long-term invoice gets paid in the strengthening of a dictator’s war chest.Everyone wins. Well, not quite everyone.Americans paid for it at the pump. Putin banked it.Just a happy coincidence.Click here to subscribe to Ray Hartmann's Soapbox
March 28, 2026