0
It’s Wired For The GOP
May 10, 2026
Posted 1 hour ago by
G. Elliott Morris gives us the numbers now that the smoke has cleared after the redistricting nightmare. He offers up this map to illustrate where the consensus lies about where we are: So now we are left with the following map of the number of seats targeted by Democrats and Republicans (drawn by The Downballot’s Stephen Wolf), in eight states that have new maps in place for 2026.
Judging by these figures, the Democrats are set to lose a net of 8 seats from redistricting this cycle (14R – 6D). Except, that estimate of R+8 seats is not quite accurate. Despite how much I’ve seen these figures floating around online as the pseudo-official estimate of the number of seats Democrats are losing to redistricting, there are two complications: First, whether a seat was “targeted” does not mean it will necessarily “flip” — several Dem and GOP targets in CA and FL are still unlikely gains for the other party, which I’ll explain momentarily. And second, Democrats are likely to lose at least two more seats due to gerrymandering in Alabama and Louisiana. So I think it’s time to do some math. How many seats are Democrats out now that their VA gerrymander is off the table? How bad could it get? And, accounting for that, how large a margin do they need in the House popular vote this November to still win the House majority? In other words, can a blue wave “save” them? In this article, I boot up mapmaking software and a House election simulator to
Digby's Hullabaloo
Coverage and analysis from United States of America. All insights are generated by our AI narrative analysis engine.