Israeli invasion of Lebanon could be worse than 1982, warn European officials

For many Lebanese, the broad scope of Israel’s military campaign in recent weeks already recalls its 18-year occupation of the south of their country, which ended after years of confrontation with Hezbollah forced Israeli troops to withdraw in 2000. This time, Beirut has taken unprecedented steps that include opening the door to direct engagement with Israel. But the Israelis do not seem to care about any of this, a European official with knowledge on the matter said. As in the past, Israeli officials have made clear they have a military plan for southern Lebanon and intend to carry it out, he added. Israel declined Lebanon’s offer for direct talks, which also drew little interest from the United States. Tel Aviv viewed the offer as too little, too late – given Beirut’s inability to rein in Hezbollah since the end of the last war, in November 2024. Annexation of the south Israel has declared most of southern Lebanon a military zone and has targeted bridges and crossings over the Litani River, effectively cutting off a large part of the south from the rest of the country. It has also issued blanket expulsion orders for all residents south of the river, which runs about 30km north of Lebanon’s border with Israel. Israel 'approved Lebanon attack' hours before Hezbollah rocket fire Read More » Since Hezbollah entered the broader Iran war on 2 March, Israel has gradually advanced across several areas of southern Lebanon in a coordinated push towards the Litani. The official said the Israeli military is carrying out a so-called “Khan Younis option” in southern Lebanon, in reference to Israel's tactic in Gaza's southern city. This approach involves systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure, the flattening of buildings, and the mass expulsion of the population. We expect Israel to push somewhat farther north of the Litani River, he said. So far, there is no indication that Israel plans to annex territory, but it is in no hurry. However, several senior Israeli officials have publicly discussed an indefinite presence in Lebanon. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has suggested extending Israel’s border north to the Litani, while Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that after the war, Israel would occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon and maintain control up to the river. Katz added that the more than 600,000 Lebanese residents who have been displaced northwards would be barred from returning south of the Litani until Israel’s northern security is ensured. Worse than 1982 As Israeli forces advance, a second official said, they are facing Hezbollah’s guerilla tactics, which could draw Israel into a protracted conflict. The Israeli army has encountered stiff resistance from Hezbollah fighters in strategic border areas, and they have engaged in fierce battles around key towns over the past few weeks. Exclusive: How Hezbollah rebuilt while its enemies declared it dead Read More » In the early days of the current war, several European leaders warned Israel against launching a major ground offensive in Lebanon. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot’s visit to Israel earlier this month failed to have the impact Paris had hoped for. After talks with his Israeli counterpart Gideon Saar, Barrot said he saw no obvious short-term end to the conflict in the Middle East. Ending this war could take months, if not years. It is already beginning to resemble a repeat of the 1982 catastrophe, a second European official said. A third European official warned that the Israeli invasion could possibly become even worse than 1982. In 1982, Israel had allies in Lebanon; this time, it does not have local partners, he added. 'Ugly and bloody' Israel’s offensive in Lebanon has killed more than 1,200 people and displaced over 1 million, primarily from Beirut’s southern suburbs and eastern and southern Lebanon. In mid-March, the Norwegian Refugee Council reported that residents in at least 14 percent of Lebanon’s territory were under orders to leave their homes. Shia populations seeking refuge in the north or in some parts of Beirut have faced difficulties finding rental properties, securing hotel rooms, or relocating to villages, as locals fear potential Israeli strikes. 'The war is already beginning to resemble a repeat of the 1982 catastrophe' – European official The Israeli military has repeatedly targeted residential buildings and hotels housing displaced families in central Beirut and other areas beyond its usual target zones, saying it was aiming at Hezbollah members or Iranian officials. In many cases, this has meant that only women and children are allowed to take refuge in some buildings and hotels, particularly in traditionally anti-Hezbollah areas, while men have nowhere to go. The third official said this delicate situation could escalate further and reopen old sectarian wounds in Lebanon. As the Israeli invasion drags on, sectarian tensions could erode whatever political capital the Lebanese government still has for negotiations with Israel, he said. While Hezbollah and its ally Amal, a Shia party led by the powerful parliament speaker Nabih Berri, consolidate politically, Israel continues to disregard the Lebanese government’s efforts to distance itself from Hezbollah’s actions. On the first day of the war, the Lebanese government announced a total ban on Hezbollah’s military and security activities. Last week, Beirut declared Iran’s ambassador persona non grata and, in a move that ultimately failed, ordered him to leave. Once Israel is finished with the war, Israel may find that there is no viable political counterpart left in Lebanon with whom it can strike a deal, the third official said. This could become increasingly ugly and bloody. War on Iran Heba Nasser London Ankara News Post Date Override 0 Update Date Mon, 05/04/2020 - 21:19 Update Date Override 0