Is this where Apple Silicon will be in 5 years?

Demand for AI servers could yet slow, given the looming energy crisis and the trend toward on-prem and edge AI services. I don’t think the current level of investment in AI is sustainable, which is why I think Apple will continue to be TSMC’s lead customer once that bubble, inevitably, bursts. What’s happening at TSMC? The latest news is that TSMC intends to begin trial production of its sub-1nm A10 process tech by 2029, setting up Apple to be the first big company to use these new processors inside its hardware when volume production begins. What’s interesting is that this move to 1nm isn’t just about making transistors smaller, but also about ensuring close integration between chips, memory, and energy systems. A report in 2021 said TSMC was able to reach 1nm by using bismuth instead of silicon in the design. Apple, of course, already works very, very hard to integrate those different elements on its existing processors, which is why it delivers better performance at lower wattage than competitors. That integration means its systems can accomplish a great deal more from lower quantities of memory, which helps protect the company’s margins against rapidly accelerating RAM prices. We currently expect up to 30 improvement in both performance and power efficiency from these new chip designs. That implies that iPhone Pro models introduced in 2030 (or possibly 2031) will be powered by these new chips. Apple’s silicon road map seems secure TSMC is expected to introduce 1.6nm chips in the next 18 months, though Apple might choose to skip that iteration to guarantee a leadership position once the 1.4nm TSMC process hits in 2028. That iteration will deliver yet another big speed and performance boost to Apple’s devices, with Apple becoming the first PC, tablet, or smartphone manufacturer to ship 1.4nm systems at scale. What benefits can we expect? During TSMC’s 2025 North American Symposium the company said 1.4nm chips should be 15 faster and consume around 30 less power than the processors inside Apple’s current devices. That’s all good, but it is also interesting to note that the iPhone 17 series hasn’t even made the leap to 2nm as yet, with Apple using TSMC’s N3P process. So, the company has lots of scope to secure the future of Apple Silicon. Where next for Apple’s chips? If it is correct that Apple will skip TSMC’s 1.6nm process and then climb aboard the 1.4nm and 1nm chips, we could see the two big processor development chapters between now and 2030. This year we can see it introduce 2nm chips, with 1.4nm to follow probably in 2028 and the huge leap to sub-1nm processors to follow in 2030-31. As these chips will be deployed across Apple’s hardware platforms, including within new designs we don’t know about yet, it means you can anticipate highly significant performance gains wherever in the ecosystem you happen to sit. Whether you’re looking at the next-generation MacBook Neo, MacBook Pro, iPhone or iPhone e, you’ll see impressive performance gains unlocked in all into the last half of this decade. Those performance gains, combined with improved energy consumption, allows Apple’s hardware designers to work towards thinner, lighter and smaller devices in a range of design configurations — some of which could not have existed before. (Think about spectacles with the kind of performance you once got from a Mac.) The way ahead is clear. Apple has a wide open road for chip design, and while tensions between today’s US and China could derail some of these plans, TSMC’s continued investment in fabrication capacity in the US might help mitigate against even that potential calamity. You can follow me on social media! Join me on BlueSky, LinkedIn, Mastodon, and MeWe.