Inside the Pentagon’s High-Stakes Nuclear Overhaul

I refer to it as the pig in the budgetary python. It's a lump that's moving through that we're just going to have to swallow in order to maintain the basic bedrock of our national security strategy, which is [nuclear] deterrence.”That was Sen. Angus King (I-Maine), speaking on the afternoon of April 20, during a Senate Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee session taking testimony from seven officials on the Fiscal 2027 Authorization for the Department of Energy (DoE) Atomic Defense Activities and the Department of Defense (DoD) Nuclear Weapons Programs.Only Subcommittee Chairman Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) and ranking-member King attended the roughly 90-minute session. However, in that time the witnesses described what Sen. King described as DoE’s nuclear weapons building complex, the National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA), being the busiest since its creation in 1980, and meeting DoD nuclear weapon requirements “while at the same time modernizing Manhattan [Project] era [1940s] production facilities.”Meanwhile, King said, DoD “is conducting a once-in-a-generation modernization of our triad...ensuring the existing triad of ICBMs, submarines, and bombers can remain safe, secure, and effective as the bedrock of our national defense deterrence policy with two near peer adversaries, Russia and China.”This subcommittee hearing, I thought, provided the best update on the complexities of this ongoing redo of U.S. nuclear forces and, since it had little-to-no public coverage, it’s worthwhile to present some highlights.For example, Air Force Gen. Dale R. White, Director of the Critical Major Weapon Systems program, updated for the Senators what’s going on with the Air Force’s Sentinel ICBM program.Sentinel was designed to replace the aging, 400 deployed Minuteman III ICBMs, but the Sentinel program was halted in 2024 for review after costs rose from an initial 78 billion to over 141 billion, moving initial operating capability (IOC) by at least two years beyond the original 2029 target.White told the Senators, DoD now annually allocates over 2 billion to operate and sustain Minuteman III with 10 active investment programs that ensure the system meets or exceeds all warfighter requirements. These funds will modernize essential, Minuteman III-specific equipment required for vital aging, surveillance, and nuclear hardness testing.Meanwhile, in the restructuring of the Sentinel ICBM program, White said the first complete three-stage ground test missile had been assembled last fall, “paving the way for the program's first flight, a missile pad launch scheduled for 2027, which will mark a pivotal moment in our flight test campaign.”This past February, the program also broke ground on a prototype Sentinel launch silo in Promontory, Utah. He called this, “a key step in tackling one of the program’s most significant engineering challenges.”White said Sentinel is on a path to its Milestone B decision by the end of this year, which would authorize it to enter engineering and manufacturing development with an initial operational capability scheduled for the early 2030s.A February Government Accountability Agency (GAO) report said, “As a result of delays to Sentinel, the Air Force may need to operate Minuteman III through 2050, 14 years longer than planned,” adding, “Prolonged operation of the aging system presents sustainment risks. Addressing these risks in a transition risk management plan would help ensure the system meets requirements during the transition.”To meet the risk, White told the Senators that to manage “the intricate transition from Minuteman III to the deployment of Sentinel,” Air Force Global Strike Command has established Sentinel Site Activation Task Force detachments at each missile wing, test site, and acquisition location.White is also responsible for the new B-21 Raider strategic bomber, which is in its flight test campaign with the physical production already begun. White said, “The first aircraft remains on track for delivery to Ellsworth Air Force Base in 2027, with a planned fleet of at least 100 aircraft, and a recent agreement with Northrop Grumman to increase annual production capacity by 25 percent.”Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts. Another subcommittee witness, Air Force Gen. Stephen L. Davis, Commander of Global Strike Command who said he “provides our Nation's combat-ready forces for nuclear and conventional long-range strike.”The U.S. bomber force of B-1s, B-2s, and B-52s, Davis said, “remain in high demand across multiple theaters.” He said they have played roles in military operations, including Rough Rider, a 2025 operation in Yemen; Midnight Hammer in Iran; Absolute Resolve in Venezuela; and today in Epic Fury in Iran.In Epic Fury, Davis said, “Global Strike Command conducted over 150 bomber sorties, 48 of which were round-trip from the United States. These missions were a minimum of 18 hours in duration, with those from the U.S. taking as long as 40 hours.”Davis is also responsible for the Air Force Survivable Airborne Operations Center (SAOC), the so-called “Doomsday” fleet of aircraft that would serve as a command post in the event of a nuclear attack on the homeland.Davis told the Senators that the 13 billion program will be fully funded in the fiscal 2027 budget and that four aircraft [Boeing 747-8s] are in Dayton, Ohio [where Sierra Nevada Corporation is] converting [them] into the new platforms.”Davis added, “We're expecting the first aircraft to show up at Omaha [Nebraska, Offutt Air Force Base] which has been identified as the main operating base in the early 2030s.”The SAOC aircraft are an important part of the DoD recapitalization of the aging Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications (NC3) system, estimated to cost some 154 billion from 2025–to-2034. This modernization will replace 1980s-era technology with digital systems and integrate with new triad platforms.The Senators also heard the status of the Navy’s new Columbia-class ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs), 12 of which are to replace the 14 Ohio-class SSBNs now providing on patrol providing the most secure strategic nuclear deterrence.Adm. William J. Houston, Director, Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program reported the Columbia nuclear reactor propulsion plant would finalize development in fiscal 2027, adding, “The life of the ship core, now entering serial production, is directly supporting the Navy's number one acquisition priority and a key strategic asset.”Vice Adm. Johnny R. Wolfe, Jr., Navy Director for Strategic Systems Programs, confirmed the first Columbia sub was “definitely on track” to make the initial, planned 2039 deployment. Wolfe said the biggest risk on the government side “is understanding all the testing that we're going to need to do both from the [test] pad and from the platform [the submarine] before we start deploying in 2039.”Another witness before the subcommittee was NNSA’s David E. Beck, Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs, who described seven nuclear warhead modernizations and several complex construction programs that were underway.Two just completed, Beck said, were for the W88 Alt 870 warhead upgrade for the Navy’s Trident II D5 sub-launched ballistic missile and the B61-12 Air Force tactical nuclear bomb. Still underway are upgrades for the B61-13 tactical bomb; the B80-4 warhead for the Long-Range Standoff cruise missile; the W80-5 warhead for the new Navy sub-launched cruise missile; the W87-1 warhead for the Minuteman III and Sentinel ICBMs; the W93, future warhead for the Navy D5.Beck also said there were two phase one projects, which mean early designs, for future possible nuclear weapons which he did not describe.Beck did describe forward movement in pit production, the plutonium-based triggers for thermonuclear weapons.“Our requirement by law is to make 80 pits a year by 2030,” Beck said, “and we have set a goal to make 100 collectively through December of 2028, which means that in order to get there from here, we will have to make between 30 and 50 pits per year. We're moving closer to the objective.”At the end of the session, Sen. King said, “I just I think it's important to sort of look on this as a bigger picture in terms of appropriations and expenses. This is not something that will continue forever. We'll get through these new [nuclear weapon] programs. It is unfortunate from a budgetary perspective, we're having to do it all at once, but it's nonetheless so critical to national security.”I expect Congress will pass the fiscal 2027 budget funding these nuclear weapon-related programs the Trump administration is seeking.