Hoops Preview: Alabama, Sweet 16

Hoops Preview: Alabama, Sweet 16 March 27th, 2026 at 12:18 PM Brian March 27th, 2026 at 12:18 PM [Marc-Gregor Campredon] THE ESSENTIALS WHAT 1 Michigan (33-3, 19-1 B10) vs 12 Alabama (25-9, 13-5 SEC)yes this is necessary [Barron] WHERE Venue By 4M ArenaChicago, IL WHEN 7:35 PMTHE LINE Kenpom: M -8Torvik: M -8TELEVISION TBSPBP: Andrew CatalonColor: Steve LappasTHE OVERVIEW In an alternate universe, Nate Oats has been Michigan's coach for seven years now. He's from the state, he was coming off a Sweet 16 appearance with Buffalo and he had just been hired by Alabama when John Beilein tried his hand at the NBA. Counterfactuals are out of control.Oats was a near-instant success at Bama, guiding the Tide to a two seed in his second year and embarking on a tourney streak that includes 4 Sweet Sixteen appearances, two Elite Eights, and a Final Four. If he keeps this up for a couple more decades, Alabama fans might even notice. He's done this with one of the most stylistically distinctive programs in the country. Year in, year out, you can count on Nate Oats teams to play as fast as humanly possible and launch a billion threes doing it. Oats's slowest team in his Bama tenure was 14th nationally. Every Tide team in his tenure has been top 20 in 3PA save last year, and they were 35th. This edition of Bama isn't quite up to snuff with their truly excellent Oats teams—the ephemeral midseason import of Charles Bediako says somethin' about somethin'—and that was before star guard Aden Holloway was arrested for having an entirely unreasonable amount of pot in his possession. Holloway did not travel with 'Bama to Chicago and should be unavailable. The should in the previous sentence is largely because of the Darius Miles murder case, which Oats did not handle well. This preview nonetheless assumes that Holloway isn't playing, because even a guy who would play someone accused of murder won't play someone who literally isn't present. Anyway!'Bama tackled a bear of a nonconference schedule and came out bruised but unbowed, losing to Purdue (at home), Gonzaga (at the Player's Era), and Arizona (semi-home). On the flipside they beat St Johns (away), Illinois (semi-away), Clemson, and South Florida. They went 13-5 in the SEC, losing by one in the opening round of the conference tourney, then blitzed Hofstra and Texas Tech to get here. They're a protected seed for a reason; they're a four seed for a reason. Michigan should win this on the strength of their frontcourt, but should ain't will. Any team that relies so heavily on threes is a scary one. [After THE JUMP: she is trading her MG for a white Chrysler Lebaron Philon] THE USClick for big. THE THEM Click for bighttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7lnTxK8mIcLabaron Philon was already the star for 'Bama even before Holloway's issues, and without him he's shot up to a 30 usage guy. A jittery 6'4 point guard in his second year, Philon's shooting 58/40/79 on big volume with an assist rate above 30 and a TO rate of 15. Philon is a dangerous three-level scorer who creates almost all of his own twos; almost half of his threes are pullups. He's also canning midrange jumpers at a 45 clip and finishing at the rim at a 65 clip. Philon is a legit star and will almost certainly draw Yaxel Lendeborg as a primary defender, for what little that means when Michigan switches so much. Michigan has dealt with Philon-esque players pretty well over the course of the season: contest immune gunners like Bruce Thornton, Keaton Wagler, and Bennett Stirtz all had inefficient outings as Michigan's top-to-bottom size ended up bothering their jump shots more than they're used to. That applied to Braden Amish Jordan Smith in game one against Purdue but no so much in game two, when he was able to get the pick and roll game going with TKR to the point where Michigan got ripped for 61 from two. From what I've seen of 'Bama, they do not have the same metronomic rhythm—or, frankly, patience—to lull Michigan into spots where a two-man game can pick apart what's normally one of the best defenses in the country. If that is in fact the case, Philon is going to have to be a Will Wade roll-out-the-ball superhero or Bama is going to have to rain hellfire in from 3 to win this game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvV3ShTay5IShooting guard Latrell Wrightsell is Nimari Burnett minus a couple of inches and with a little more volume. Statistically they are near-identical. Burnett's a little better on the boards; Wrightsell is a little better as a playmaker and driver. He has a heavy emphasis on threes but does just enough inside the line to get a Not Just A Shooter tag.Wrightsell came over after three years at Cal-Fullerton and got injured eight games into 'Bama's season in 2024-25, so he's old as dirt and maybe not the kind of run/jump athlete that would be ideal. On the other hand, his 37 deep shooting clip may undersell his ability since he was at 44 in his Bama career prior to this year and is at that number in KP50 games. Given that Philon is going to have the ball in his hands most of the time, Wrightsell is the 1 know-your-scout don't-help guy Michigan will face. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgP4jBits4sFreshman Amari Allen is the secondary playmaker and a guy drawing first round NBA draft chatter because he functions as a 6'8 guard. His assist rate is close to 20 and his TO rate is a very acceptable 13; he will be a challenge to switch given his size and ability to get to the bucket, but on the bright side he tends to try to finish through contact and Michigan delivers a lot of contact:Allen’s a guard before everything else which puts more importance to his handles and creativity. He’s a crafty scorer. Good athlete who’ll use finesse and strength to gain separation and scoring angles when getting downhill. However, the main area of attention is the lack of passing underneath the basket. He’s finishing through a lot of contact in the first play whereas the immediate awareness to pass out of incoming doubles should be the norm. This leads to him finishing at 57.7 around the rim without dunks despite having good touch. He’s comfortable finishing with both hands as well.Shooting 56/35/73 overall but that dips to 50/31 in KP 50 games, so he is getting affected by bigger and more athletic teams. Allen is also a quality defender with a healthy number of defensive box score events. The issue for 'Bama is that someone has to check Michigan Big 2 (and, for about a fifth of the game, 3) and Allen doesn't look like he has the beef to do it. At 205 he's giving up ~40 pounds against Lendeborg or Johnson. Neither does the next guy. Fellow freshman London Jemison (composite 38) drew into the starting lineup after Holloway's exit but had started on and off prior; expect him to get about 20 minutes. Jemison puts up some points but at least right now he's a bit of an empty calories kind of player. He's physically identical to Allen but is a shot absorber rather than creator—all of his threes and two-thirds of his twos are assisted. Shooting 56/35/60, though that three point shooting drops to 24 against KP50 teams. Doesn't do a whole lot else other than chip in some rebounds; 7 fouls per 40 against KP50 teams means he may not be able to play much more than 20 minutes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpZyYK-DY8YAt center, Detroit native Aiden Sherrell is the only true big on the roster. At 6'11, 255 he's a physical match for Michigan's bigs but there's only one of him. Effective as a finisher but not much of a post up threat, not that Bama does much posting up. About 80 of his twos are assisted or putbacks. Sherrell is a shooter, hitting 33 from 3 on the season. Against KP50 teams he's averaging just under two 3PA per game, and he maintains his excellent two point efficiency (65). Gets to the line a lot, where he hits 71. He's the main OREB threat for Bama, has an excellent block rate, and will be a challenge for Michigan to post up. It goes without saying that Sherrell foul trouble will be difficult for 'Bama to survive.Also: Sherrell's only played about 24 MPG over 'Bama's last five, so tempo here might actually favor Michigan. When Sherrell goes to the bench he's replaced by either a center who's struggled or a miscast power forward. When Aday Mara goes to the bench, an NBA player replaces him. Without Holloway the bench is very thin:Three-and-D wing Houston Mallette is a redshirt senior who came over from Pepperdine last year, then barely played. 36 Just A Shooter with a total of 7 2PA in 16 KP50 games. Playing 20+ MPG as main/only backcourt backup. FSU transfer PF Taylor Bol Bowen has the freaky long arms you'd expect from a guy with Bol in his name. 6'10 power forward is a low usage fellow who takes most of his shot from 3, where he's at 30 this year. Black hole who does not issue assists; top 200 block rate; does not make much impact on the offensive boards. Bucknell transfer C Noah Williamson (who is from—you guessed it—Latvia) has been a major disappointment in limited minutes. Shooting 56/17/64 with a TO rate near 30 and very little to recommend him otherwise. Did get 13 minutes against Texas Tech, hitting two threes in the first half to fully establish it was not Texas Tech's day. Also he is 7 feet tall so you have to figure he'll get some run. Miami transfer Jalil Bethea is a wing who gets a handful of minutes in every game; not really enough to go on for him this year but he was a 40/33/82 shooter on an awful Miami team last year. 48/31/81 this year but the O/U on his shot attempts is set at 1.5, so probably not important. THE TEMPO FREE It's a distinctive style:As per usual under Oates, this team is super fast (8th in offensive tempo) and three heavy (1st in 3PA/FGA). The willingness to chuck threes whenever and wherever naturally lends itself to a good turnover rate, but the defensive weaknesses are apparent: they are close to dead last nationally in forcing TOs and close to the 300s at defending their own boards.More drill down: Alabama isn't quite Saint Louis when it comes to avoiding midrange shots, but they're in the ballpark. They're 14th at avoiding other twos; Saint Louis was first but is now second after playing Michigan. Despite the above, Bama does not get to the rim a lot (293rd), because they chuck all those threes. Bama gets a ton of shots blocked (343), in part because all shots inside the line must go up at the rim. If Michigan is able to sink Mara into the paint he could have 5 or 6. Shot chart: A lot of green for the 3 offense in the country. KEY TYPE THINGSCrush boards. Alabama's defensive rebounding issues may be understated by the raw numbers above. Poke an Alabama loss and you'll almost invariably find the opponent has hoovered up a bunch of OREBs. Purdue: 48. Gonzaga: 47. Arizona: 43. Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia: between 38 and 42. This isn't entirely sufficient, as Bama managed to win two games this year in which their opponent rebounded half their misses. Short of a massive shooting outlier performance (like Tennessee hitting barely 50 at the rim and also going 4/18 from deep in a two-point loss in which they had 25 OREBs), it should be. Crush guys who aren't Sherrell. Another trend in 'Bama losses this season is secondary bigs going off:Purdue (TKR): 19 points on 15 shooting possessions, 8 OREBs, 5 assists, 2 TOs. Gonzaga (Braden Huff): 18 points on 9/11 from two, 4 OREB, 2 A, 2 TOTexas (Dailyn Swain): 7/11 from 2, 3 OREBFlorida (Thomas Haugh): 7/10 from 2, 2 OREB. Main big Condon: 11/14 from 2, 5 OREB, 6 A, 0 TOArizona had Tobe Awaka come off the bench; he did not shoot well from two but had 7 OREBs in 23 minutes. When secondary bigs were not going off Alabama beat Illinois and Clemson, who hypothetically have the size to do the above but not the players. A tight season series against Tennessee benefited from the fact that Felix Okpara is a 13 usage guy who doesn't create his own shots. Anyway: while Bama lost games in other ways the ones most directly applicable to this game are the above. 'Bama has no choice but to stick 200 pound freshmen on Johnson and/or Lendeborg for big stretches of the game. Bol Bowen doesn't appear to move the needle defensively, either, despite being older and longer.Don't trip balls. This team is dead last nationally in non-steal TOs forced, and Michigan has had some issues with galumphing the ball out of bounds for mysterious reasons. A lot of those have come when Michigan makes dubious decisions about transition and this game looks set to have a ton of transition. A simple decision matrix: is it obvious? If no, is it Mara? If no, don't. Can Philon hunt Cadeau? No offense to Cadeau, but Cadeau is a normal sized person with normal arms and is the one guy on the roster who isn't at least annoying to a guy like Philon when Philon pulls up. The sense of relief opposing stars feel when they are being checked by Not Yaxel is palpable, and a harried/inefficient/exhausted Philon is probably game over for 'Bama. One that consistently gets Cadeau switched on to him has a much better shot at losing his mind and shooting 8/10 from three or whatever. It's a make or miss tournament. Herewith we must submit ourselves to the basketball gods, and plead: leteth not the foe shoot 50 from three, oh please.THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES Michigan by 8. Log in or register to post comments GoBlue1969 March 27th, 2026 at 12:45 PM ^ Should be a good game. Post on X says Holloway is headed to Chicago to play tonight. Let them have their full roster so there is no excuse that we won.Go Blue!Update- Now on second view the post came from a satire account. Still, even if it was true I’d rather beat the team with their full roster. Joined: 01/05/2019 MGoPoints: 10416 buddha March 27th, 2026 at 1:01 PM ^ I just have a weird feeling about this game. Not sure why. Obviously, I hope we win and continue to make Bama our vanquished foe...but there's something about Bama that sort of reminds of that TTU team several years ago. I think we were either a 1 or 2 seed and they would've been a 3 or 4 seed...and they seemingly hit every damn 3 from every possible angle.Since then, I've been anxious of 3-point shooting teams, especially because we've had some problems defending those types of teams this year...I sincerely hope to be wrong though! Joined: 10/08/2009 MGoPoints: 5348 In reply to I just have a weird feeling by buddha Michigan4Life March 27th, 2026 at 1:10 PM ^ I'm less worried about the 3 pt shooting because teams have been hot from 3 and still lost to Michigan.It's more about being efficient at the rim. Michigan lost to Duke, Wisconsin and Purdue for this reason. Joined: 07/29/2010 MGoPoints: 38416 BornInAA March 27th, 2026 at 1:02 PM ^ Yes, actually guard 3s not let guy make 6 in a row and hope he goes cold Joined: 11/21/2009 MGoPoints: 15996 Beaublue March 27th, 2026 at 1:04 PM ^ There are now multiple reports from the school that Holloway may well travel to the game but will not play and is still listed as out. Joined: 09/17/2013 MGoPoints: 6448 basketball previews 2026 ncaa tournament 2025-26 alabama