$174 Jet Fuel: The Refinery Bottleneck Defying Trump’s Oil Strategy

benchmarks hitting 160 and 174 per barrel, respectively. According to Argus Media, the decoupling means that if Brent crude had followed the trajectory of European jet fuel, it would now be trading above 160 per barrel—nearly double its current level.The supply shock is driven by a critical shortage in refined inventories rather than a lack of raw crude. Despite the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz—through which 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of products flow daily—the market remains cushioned by a crude surplus on tankers. However, thin product stocks have sent U.S. diesel up 50 year-on-year to 5.38 per gallon. This imbalance has shifted massive margins to refiners like Repsol and Neste, while global shipping disruptions and reduced Chinese exports continue to complicate the delivery of finished fuels. As geopolitical tensions persist, the market is proving increasingly resistant to political rhetoric, driven instead by a global shortfall in refining capacity.