Brexit Effect: Productivity and Investment

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Introduction This is the third in a series of articles analysing the oft-cited NBER paper, which estimates that Brexit has reduced the UK’s GDP by 6-8, usually shortened to 8, over the past eight years. In the first two threads (here and here), I argued that the estimated macro (6-8) and employment (3-4) effects seemed overstated. I now turn to its projections on those perennial British weaknesses, productivity and investment.