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Analysts warn UAE exit could weaken OPEC structure
April 28, 2026
Posted 2 hours ago by
Dubai: Analysts cited by the Financial Times believe the war has accelerated dynamics that were already in place. The UAE has long held the view that oil should be exported at maximum levels to generate the greatest financial returns from the commodity, fund the next phase of its development, and prepare for the post‑oil era.Jorge Leon, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official, said the organization would become “structurally weaker” without the UAE, as Saudi Arabia would be the only remaining member with spare production capacity.Leon added that oil markets could see increased volatility as OPEC’s ability to ease supply disruptions diminishes.
The UAE produces about 11.4 of OPEC’s total output.Firas Maksad, Head of Middle East Analysis at Eurasia Group, said, “The UAE was not comfortable with restraining itself, especially as it seeks to increase production.”According to Bloomberg, OPEC production shares are distributed as follows: Saudi Arabia 34.3, Iraq 14.5, Iran 11.8, the UAE 11.4, and Kuwait 9, while the remaining member states account for the remaining 19.
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